With the arrival of globalization, air freight is seeing an enormous increase in demand, this can be seen in the impressive growth of freighter aircraft in service.

Since 1970, the worlds freighter fleet has doubled every 10 years, and today there are over 1,700 dedicated freighters in service. The introduction of wide body freighters, such as the Boeing 747 in the 1970's, greatly aided the convenience and cost effectiveness of the air freighting of goods.

The reliance on dedicated freighters by the air cargo industry continues to grow, year after year. Although passenger carriers recognize the income potential from their belly hold space, they are just not capable of absorbing the expected growth in air freight volumes.

On passenger aircraft baggage is competing with revenue earning cargo for space. This problem is amply demonstrated by the fact that air cargo traffic growth will out pace passenger growth by more than 1% per year. This figure is expected to apply in nearly all major regional markets.

Thus, it is expected that by 2019, dedicated freighters will provide 44% of total air cargo capacity, up from 36% in 1997. Even though cargo capacity provided by combis will fall, actual total cargo capacity will have tripled over the same time frame.

The dedicated freighter fleet is expected to increase by at least another 2,600 aircraft by 2019. Annual fleet additions, currently at 120 per year, should reach 150 per year during the next twenty year period.

Wide Bodies

Wide body freighters are predicted to make up 65% of these new additions, and will in fact constitute well over half the total future fleet. In terms of lift, over 90% of capacity will be afforded by wide body freighters by 2019, if expectations are realized.

The king of the wide bodies, the Boeing 747, is expected to maintain its dominant market position throughout the next 20 years, which will be reinforced by a stretched version, when it comes into production.

The medium wide body sector will triple in units by 2019, their greater versatility providing greater cost effectiveness for operators. It should also not be forgotten, that significant increases will occur in the numbers of small freighters. In excess of 800 aircraft will be added to the worlds freighter fleet by 2019, servicing the vital feeder and niche markets.

Express carriers are fully expected to acquire medium wide body freighters to replace their standard body freighters, this will provide a convenient solution to their expected traffic growth.

Converted and Born Again

Converted freighters make up at least 80% of the worlds current freighter fleet. Of the new freighters added to the fleet over the next 20 years, nearly 70% will be converted passenger and combi aircraft. At least half of these will be wide bodies. Over 800 production freighters will also be delivered, and three quarters of these will be wide bodies.

It is also worth noting that in the large wide body sector, such as the 747F, operators tend to rely more on production freighters than conversions. However, the availability of many affordable and desirable convertible aircraft, will ensure that conversions remain a popular option, especially with the added emphasis on the modification business, by the worlds two major aircraft manufacturers.

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